000 AXNT20 KNHC 141109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N93W 26N95W 22N96W 20.5N97W. NORTHWEST- TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ARE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 93W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N25W TO 9N26W AND 5N26W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N28W TO 1N33W 1N40W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N26W 3N30W 1N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 53W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...WITHIN 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N...AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 21N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD TO 30N IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA KVBS...AT KVAF...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KEIR DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...KSPR...KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. SITES KEHC AND KEIR ARE REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. SITE KSPR IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS APALACHICOLA...BROOKSVILLE...THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 27N79W JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 16W TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N49W 24N58W AND TO 22N63W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN PART OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT NOW APPEARS TO BE SEPARATE FROM THE FEATURE THAT IS STRETCHING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.13 IN NASSUA IN THE BAHAMAS...0.10 IN GUADELOUPE...0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.06 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS AND IT PUSHES NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA... WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N22W. THE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN WEAKENING...BEING REPLACED BY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A TROUGH STILL CONTINUES FROM THE 27N22W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N34W 25N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N67W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT