000 AXNT20 KNHC 140604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW TO THE NORTH OF 22N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO REACH 11 FEET. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N23W TO 10N25W AND 5N25W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO 1S42W AND INTO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W...FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W...AND FROM 6N TO 2S BETWEEN 34W AND 50W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS... THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N94W 25N96W 23N97W. A SQUALL LINE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W/86W...FROM 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF 90W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA KVBS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 92W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE AT THE ICAO SITES. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 27N79W JUST TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 73W/74W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N49W 24N58W AND TO 22N63W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN PART OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT NOW APPEARS TO BE SEPARATE FROM THE FEATURE THAT IS STRETCHING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.13 IN NASSUA IN THE BAHAMAS...0.10 IN GUADELOUPE...0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.06 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...AND A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS AND IT PUSHES NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA... WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N22W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM TO 360 NM OF THE 25N22W CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N34W 29N33W 27N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT