000 AXNT20 KNHC 131733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A VERY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWER AND TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N94W TO 26N96W. STRONG WINDS OF 30-35 KT WERE NOTED THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSTMS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF TO EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...FROM MISSISSIPPI TO VERACRUZ WED...AND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ COMMENCING AT 12 UTC WED AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE SW GULF THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14 FT MAINLY S OF 22N W OF 94W DURING THE GALE WIND EVENT. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 03N TO 14N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ABOUT 10 KT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO 00N35W TO 01S46W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF AND STRETCHES ALONG 95W S OF 23N. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALOFT... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA. WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ON WED AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA. LOW-TOPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE BASIN. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE A TROUGH CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ISLAND...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL CROSSING THE ISLAND AND WILL HELP TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 21N81W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT REACHING SE FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING ALSO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE E. THIS TROUGH IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF WEAK HIGH PRES SITUATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA AND NEAR 33N41W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N32W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD IS NOTED NEAR 28N50W ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED THERE IN THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR