000 AXNT20 KNHC 131112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 30N94W TO 26N96W TO 21N97W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ...TROPICAL WAVE... AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N20W TO 4N22W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 2S BETWEEN 2E AND 7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N18W 2N27W 2N34W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 45W AND 48W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL...AND FROM 2S TO 7S BETWEEN 30W AND 36W OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 18N93W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN COVERING TEXAS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...HAS BEEN APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE EAST OF 90W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING EASTWARD TO 90W...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RELATED TO A 70W/71W ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N42W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N53W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KOPM...KBBF...KBQX...KIKT...AND KVOA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KVOA. A VISIBILITY OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE STATION KBBF. A VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 MILES WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KBQX. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITY IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAS BECOME 3 MILES WITH FOG...AFTER SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. THE VISIBILITY IS ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT FORT MYERS AND NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N92W TO 18N93W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 88W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N49W...TO 26N58W 23N65W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N79W OFF THE COAST OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 10N60W 13N67W 15N77W 16N85W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.25 IN GUADELOUPE. THE 24-HOUR TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC WERE 0.19 FOR GUADELOUPE AND MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.11 FOR SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA... WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N27W TO 15N32W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO 30N30W 28N30W 27N33W 30N35W 32N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N42W...TO 32N53W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N77W TO 22N79W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH 27N TO THE WEST OF 72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT