000 AXNT20 KNHC 122333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 6N17W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA BUT IS DISRUPTED BY THE ABOVE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 7N20W AND CONTINUES TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 30N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS S ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO CAPE CANAVERAL. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED W OF BERMUDA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS ALONG 31N TO 93W. THE GULF WATERS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO EARLY WED AND FROM W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ EARLY THU. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF WED AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH THU. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR W/CENTRAL AND SW GULF WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC TO OVER E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER E CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N62W TO 19N56W INCLUDING TRINIDAD/TOBAGO... BARBADOS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY WED. A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W OF THE AREA THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDS FROM 26N74W ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER E CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 26N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 72W-78W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST W OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W- 65W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W TO 26N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH. W ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS THE SW ATLC SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW