000 AXNT20 KNHC 121800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO 12N15W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE SHOWS LOW- LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WHICH LARGELY REMAINS A REFLECTION OF GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE GREATEST INFLUENCE FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 03W-40W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 02N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 30N/31N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THIS PATTERN OF E-SE WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THOUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N93W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N68W TO A BASE OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N72W. AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES W OF 77W THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N75W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY IMPACTING CUBA WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WEST OF THE ISLAND FROM 23N73W TO 19N75W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS CUBA WITH CONDITIONS AND SKIES CONTINUING ON A GRADUAL IMPROVING AND CLEARING TREND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE LARGER IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N78W AND THE LARGER-SCALE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 21N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR 19N75W TO 26N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 67W-80W ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS AN AREA FROM 11N-26N BETWEEN 52W-64W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N41W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC IS A WEAKENING AND OCCLUDED 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY REMAIN N OF 30N BETWEEN 24W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN