000
AXNT20 KNHC 121048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 5N20W TO 2N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES THE EQUATOR AT 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N 
BETWEEN 25W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR THE 
NE PORTION OF THE AREA SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE IS 
ACROSS THEN NORTHERN GULF...WITH MOSTLY SE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS 
THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ELY WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. THE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED 
TO DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS TUE. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS 
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF 
THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR THE NW 
GULF TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SW TO 
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT N AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MON. THE 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WED.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER PUERTO RICO COUPLED WITH THE 
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING HAITI WILL BRING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK W ACROSS THE ISLAND AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 
MID WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST... 
OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 
75W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 
PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 10N47W WITH RIDGE N TO 32N41W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 15W-40W. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY FROM 23N72W TO HAITI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH 
SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS