000
AXNT20 KNHC 120541
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N20W TO 2N26W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE  TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 13W-20W 
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 25W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N GULF COAST. 
EXCEPT FOR THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AND 
STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THEN 
NORTHERN GULF...WITH MOSTLY SE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA 
EXCEPT FOR ELY WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SW TO 
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT N AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MON. THE 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND S 
BAHAMAS SUN THROUGH WED.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER PUERTO RICO COUPLED WITH THE 
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE EASTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND 
PORTIONS OF W HAITI. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TO TRACK W ACROSS THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE 
HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST. 
OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 
75W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N 
AND E OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 10N46W WITH RIDGE N TO 32N42W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 15W-25W 30W. THE SURFACE 
TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 23N69W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE 
W INTO SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS