000 AXNT20 KNHC 112330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N16W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 11W-20W...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W- 27W...AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N GULF COAST. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER NE TEXAS TO SW LOUISIANA ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY OVER THE N GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND N GULF TO 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO EARLY WED. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR W CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WED INTO EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS ELONGATING N/S ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 23N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 63W-67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N ACROSS HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN UPPER RIDGE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W TO 17N59W INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE LEE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO EARLY MON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT N AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND S BAHAMAS SUN THROUGH WED. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 11/2100 UTC IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORTIONS OF W HAITI. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK W ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NE AND WEAKENS MON AS IT IS BEING ABSORBED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY OVER S GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF 29N. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 27N73W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N68W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N67W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W-67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W TO 30N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. W ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W-NW TO NEAR 72W MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW