000 AXNT20 KNHC 111747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W TO 05N19W TO 03N10W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N10W TO 02N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OVERALL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF... HOWEVER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N83W AND THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N90W. BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF 90W...AND A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF 24N92W. AT THE SURFACE...ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 29N/30N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THIS PATTERN OF E-SE WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THOUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL W OF 70W THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...E OF 70W...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INCREASES WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE ADVECTION...CLOUDINESS...AND PRECIPITATION REMAINING AN IMPACT FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH RESULTS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ANALYZED FROM 15N68W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 21N66W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W SE TO THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. THIS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. OF NOTE...1.37 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AT SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND 0.78 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN AT SAINT THOMAS U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN REGION BY LATE MONDAY WITH BROAD TROUGHING REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE ISLAND FROM 15N68W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 21N66W. IN ADDITION...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N68W IS PROVIDING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSENING EARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA REGION THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. WHILE MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N69W IS PROVIDING FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. FARTHER TO THE SE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W AND IS GENERATING AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT HIGHER WINDS NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 21N66W. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 54W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N46W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC IS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDING W-SW TO 30N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN