000
AXNT20 KNHC 111149 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE ATLC NEAR 
12N16W TO 4N17W. ITCZ FROM 4N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-29W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 30W-35W.  

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NE GULF. 
OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY 
WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SEA FOG WITH LOW CLOUD 
CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER NE THROUGH TODAY WITH SE RETURN 
FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE NW GULF EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS 
STARTING TO WEAKEN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 17N67W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S TO VENEZUELA. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND WILL MOVE W INTO THE MONA 
PASSAGE EARLY MON THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. 
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM 32N66W TO 
WESTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N45W 
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF PUERTO RICO. COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 32N37W TO 29N44W. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. 
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS 
CENTERED NEAR 20N26W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION TO THE NE AT 29N14W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS N OF 10N E OF 30W. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 66W THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SE BAHAMAS 
AND HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT. A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY 
TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS