000 AXNT20 KNHC 110540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 4N17W. ITCZ FROM 4N17W TO 2N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 4W-27W AND FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SEA FOG WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER NE THROUGH SUN WITH SE RETURN FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF EARLY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S TO VENEZUELA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND WILL MOVE W INTO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY MON THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM 32N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION S OF PUERTO RICO. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 29N48W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N58W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 18N27W...WITH A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NE AT 30N16W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 10N E OF 35W. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 66W SUN AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT. A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS