000 AXNT20 KNHC 102340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 2N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 4W-27W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 27N92W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY OVER THE N GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-91W. DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER NE THROUGH SUN WITH SE RETURN FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MOST OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF EARLY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N62W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N-20N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 15N. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND WEAKEN SUN INTO MON WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES SUN THROUGH WED. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND WEAKEN SUN INTO MON BEING ABSORBED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TUE. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLAND WILL SHIFT W MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY MON THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W ALONG 30N64W TO 30N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 32N67W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR...THUS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS TO 27N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N60W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 12N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AN 65W AND FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 54W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT NE MON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 66W SUN AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT. A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW