000
AXNT20 KNHC 100545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 5N20W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 35W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
U.S...THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS...AND INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPANS MOST OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO.
 
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH A WEAK PRES 
GRADIENT SE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF INDICATE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND 
WIDESPREAD FOG MAINLY NORTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 93W. WIDESPREAD 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST 
FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO SOUTH TEXAS.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK 
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST TO MOVE 
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF E OF 90W ON TODAY AND SUN.   

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ANTICYCLONE OVER BELIZE 
AND ASSOCIATED FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
10N BETWEEN 70W-80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IN THE 
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ALONG THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WAS UNDER FAIR SKIES 
WITH MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW NOTED.  

...HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA WAS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE TROUGH 
MOVES WESTWARD WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF 
THE AREA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN 
DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER 
THE ATLANTIC N OF THE ISLANDS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N58W SOUTHWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS TROUGH WAS 
PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM 32N44W TO 23N65W. 

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 19N28W. DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE N OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB