000 AXNT20 KNHC 091801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N14W AND 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS 1N4W... 1N8W...2N13W...4N13W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...THROUGH OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS...AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPAN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N/31N FROM 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BEYOND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG/HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KOPM...KMZG...KBBF... KBQX...KHQI...KCRH...KEIR...AND KSPR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KOPM...KGHB...KAXO...AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND RAIN AND DRIZZLE...COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS/ COASTAL AREAS FROM LOUISIANA TO DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...EXCEPT TO 9 FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...FROM 23N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 86W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N60W...ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 14N TO 20N. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 25N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N60W TO 24N67W AND 24N74W. A SECOND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST STATIONARY FRONT...30N48W 25N57W 20N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 26N56W 20N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.28 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS...1.68 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.26 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA...0.09 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.03 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W. A WESTWARD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 58W/59W FROM 11N TO 17N. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS APPEAR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR PORT-AU- PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A 28N80W- TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18.5N TO THE EAST OF 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N23W...THROUGH 32N32W...TO 30N39W 22N46W AND 14N50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 30N48W 25N57W 20N63W DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT