000
AXNT20 KNHC 090541
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W  
SW TO 01N20W 01N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
BEGINS NEAR 01N30W AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W. CLUSTERS 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
GUATEMALA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AS WELL AS AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE ON THE E PACIFIC HAVE BEEN ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR 
INTO MEXICO AND THE A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF. THE SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN ALOFT ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR ARE SUPPORTING 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING WITH 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING 
ADVECTION FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 91W. DEEP LAYER DRY 
AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGING 
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING AND 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 
WESTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING PORTIONS OF THE 
WESTERN ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE 
CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE CARIBBEAN. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH 
TODAY. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE 
AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY 
BRINGING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC AND THE 
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N47W SW TO 25N63W THEN 
DISSIPATING TO 25N68W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE 
REMAINDER WESTERN AND EASTERN ATLC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS