000 AXNT20 KNHC 081043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 01N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 06W- 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 21W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. WHILE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 90W IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 90W IS PROVIDING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS W OF 93W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 24N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND A FEW OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK WESTWARD DRIFTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM 23N63W TO THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 66W ARE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N63W TO 19N69W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 65W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING SW TO 24N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N62W TO 19N69W HAS FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 58W-69W. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N52W SW TO 27N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N69W. FINALLY...EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN