000 AXNT20 KNHC 080551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 01N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N18W TO 01N21W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 09W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 19W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. WHILE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 90W IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 90W IS PROVIDING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS W OF 94W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE MEXICO. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF IN THE VICINITY OF 24N95W ACCORDING TO A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0308 UTC. THE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-78W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE... PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N67W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 21N67W TO 18N68W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 66W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING SW TO 23N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 25N63W INTO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N67W HAS FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N55WSW TO 28N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N70W. FINALLY...EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN