000
AXNT20 KNHC 080033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT WED MAY 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W  
SW TO 02N16W 01N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
BEGINS NEAR 0N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 0N32W TO THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03S-04N BETWEEN 17W-34W AND FROM 05S-02N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE CENTRAL U.S. PROVIDING THE GULF 
WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES W OF 90W AND NORTHWESTERLIES E OF 90W. 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EPAC TO THE WESTERN GULF WHICH ALONG LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF 93W. 
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN ALONG WITH SURFACE 
RIDGING SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE SURFACE 
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS 
NEAR 28N76W WHICH IS PROVIDING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 
TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
GUATEMALA EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE A BROAD 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE REMAINDER BASIN. LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS OVER EASTERN CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. A 
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE 
EXTENDING A TROUGH TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHICH ALONG DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR PERSISTING 
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR 
WEATHER. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES 
OF 10-15 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 
GREATER ANTILLES AND EXTEND TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT 
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
ALONG THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC 
NEAR 28N76W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N47W 
SW TO 26N52W TO 23N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY 
FRONT ALONG 23N64W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 20N67W. A SWATH OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N49W SW TO 18N64W 
AND A LINE FROM 30N56W SW TO 19N66W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING 
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR