000 AXNT20 KNHC 071737 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 07 2014 CORRECTED FOR THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME OF 1715 UTC INSTEAD OF 1745 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N12W AND 2N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N16W TO 3N27W 3N32W...AND 2N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2S TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 3W AND 6W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N 3W AND 5W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N BETWEEN 7W AND 9W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 94W/95W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE EAST OF 90W. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N75W...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGUL...KHQI...AND KGBK. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND IN HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS...IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN KINGSVILLE...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES...AND IN BEAUMONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS OF...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N68W...TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N71W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N50W AND 24N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N58W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N67W...AND TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N43W AND 18N53W...TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 64W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...AND 0.07 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AND 82W IN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N68W...TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N71W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 28N50W AND 24N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N58W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N67W...AND TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN AND AROUND CUBA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.51 IN BERMUDA. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF SANTO DOMINGO...WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FOUR OBSERVATIONS IN PUERTO PLATA FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO THE CURRENT TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT WIND FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... WITH PARTIAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND A CHANGING PATTERN. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A 31N79W-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN MOROCCO 29N11W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N28W AND 13N34W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY... FROM 14N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N26W...THROUGH 32N29W...TO 27N38W 21N43W AND 18N53W... TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N46W 24N58W 22N67W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST THAT CONSISTS OF... WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT