000 AXNT20 KNHC 071043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 02N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 02W-08W... AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 11W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 15W-28W...AND S OF 02N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH E-SE WINDS NOTED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N94W THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-75W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE TAIL END OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N66W TO 19N70W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N66W TO 19N70W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N59W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 19N72W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW TO 26N55W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THEN ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 27N63W AND THE OTHER CENTERED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. FINALLY...EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN