000 AXNT20 KNHC 070546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N16W TO 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 01W-05W...AND FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 10W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 38W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N94W THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-75W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TAIL END OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W TO 20N70W. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N62W TO 20N70W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PROVIDING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 20N73W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW TO 23N62W AND BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED E-NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N75W. FINALLY... EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN