000 AXNT20 KNHC 070004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 03N15W TO 04N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 04N22W AND CONTINUES TO 01N33W 0N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-06N E OF 24W WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COMING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 04S-03N W OF 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST SW OF APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH E-SE WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT...MAX WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION FROM ACROSS NICARAGUA EASTWARD THROUGH 80W WHILE THE BASE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINING BASIN. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH ALONG HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO PUERTO RICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NE OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS IN THIS ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH LIGHTING DATA SHOWING TSTMS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE ISLAND. AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 27N76W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW TO DISSIPATE N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N49W SW TO 24N59W TO 21N67W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NEAR THE TAIL OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N62W SW TO HISPANIOLA NE COASTAL WATERS NEAR 20N69W. A SWATH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A LINE FROM 30N51W SW TO 21N62W AND A LINE FROM 30N58W SW TO 22N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 21N BETWEEN 67W-70W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR