000 AXNT20 KNHC 061721 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 06W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST W OF OCALA FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED E OF 90W...AND 10 TO 20 KT S-SE WINDS W OF 90W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION FROM ACROSS NICARAGUA EASTWARD THROUGH 13N72W TO BEYOND 12N61W...INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT EXTENDS TO 22N74W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF CUBA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE REGIONS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING...STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 23N74W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS TO 30N EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 30N68W... WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE ONGOING FAIR WEATHER W OF A LINE FROM 32N57W TO 23N78W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N77W. FARTHER EAST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W...EXTENDING SW TO 25N60W TO 23N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 23N64W SW TO N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150- 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY