000 AXNT20 KNHC 061043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N21W TO 01N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 16W-32W... AND S OF 01N BETWEEN 39W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING PROVIDING FOR VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH LIGHT E-SE WINDS NOTED E OF 90W...AND 10 TO 20 KT S-SE WINDS W OF 90W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY WEDNESDAY WITH SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION EASTWARD ALONG 13N TO 65W THEN NE TO BEYOND 20N55W...INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO 22N73W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE REGIONS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS FROM 24N66W TO 23N73W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING...STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 25N74W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS TO 30N BETWEEN 65W-71W WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE ONGOING FAIR WEATHER W OF A LINE FROM 32N570W TO 23N74W ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N73W. FARTHER EAST...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MORE PRONOUNCED AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 24N66W THE W-SW AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 23N67W SW TO NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN