000 AXNT20 KNHC 052356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N19W TO 02N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N30W AND CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N EAST OF 26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-08N WEST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ALONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS 1017 MB AND IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE TO WEST OF GAINESVILLE WITHIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITH EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATING E OF 90W S OF THE HIGH CENTER AND SE FLOW DOMINATING ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC BY TUESDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N56W SW TO 24N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 74W TO INCLUDE EASTERN CUBA WHERE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACCORDING TO LIGHTING DATA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WHICH ALONG LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. IN TERMS OF WINDS...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS REACH A MAX OF 20 KT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA WHICH ALONG REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT RAINSHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N56W SW TO 24N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR