000
AXNT20 KNHC 051751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
205 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N10W TO 
4N15W TO 3N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTEND 
FROM 3N28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 
10W-18W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 
27N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH 
A 90-100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO 
MOVE TO THE NE GULF AT 28N85W IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE FAIR WEATHER.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA 
NEAR 21N79W TO 20N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. TRADEWINDS IN THE 20-
25 KT RANGE CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE EVENING. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION GUATEMALA NE TO PUERTO RICO...WITH VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE TO HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE SHOWERS.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO 
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 23N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 
22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF FRONT S OF 25N. A 1022 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. ON THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE 
FRONTS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-60W. A 
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 
29N16W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS