000
AXNT20 KNHC 051109
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
805 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
04N20W TO 03N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS 
NEAR 03N29W AND CONTINUES TO 02N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N 
BETWEEN 8W-18W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 
28N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10 KT OVER THE E GULF WHILE 10-
15 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF DUE TO A TIGHTER SURFACE 
GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH A 70-90 
KT JETSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE 
NE GULF AT 28N85W IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE FAIR WEATHER.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 22N77W TO 21N80W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 
20N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. 
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...N 
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W. 
WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO 
HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE SHOWERS.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY OVER HAITI. EXPECT 
THE SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 25N70W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ON NOTE IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-60W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH 
CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA