000 AXNT20 KNHC 050001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W TO 02N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N28W TO 01N40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-09N E OF 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N91W. STABLE DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FAVORING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO THE NE GULF...E-SE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SE WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W WHERE WITHOUT SUPPORT ALOFT IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N85W TO CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N W OF 79W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO INCLUDE THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS WHICH EXTEND S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-77W. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NE TO SW N ATLC WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND TONIGHT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT OVER CUBA SLIGHTLY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N85W TO CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N41W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR