000 AXNT20 KNHC 041758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 3N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N27W THEN CROSS THE EQUATOR AT 40W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 4N-9N E OF 16W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A 90 KT WLY JETSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N92W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF GULF LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... 50 KT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DIVIDES AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N77W AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS NOTED IN THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DISPLACED INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A STRONG BREEZE THROUGH TUE MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE FRONT PASSES N OF HISPANIOLA MON...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREAS. WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AS IT STRETCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N56W. ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 27N23W WITH TROUGH SW TO 21N36W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JETSTREAM IS ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAX IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS