000 AXNT20 KNHC 041043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 05N20W TO 03N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N27W TO 02N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED FROM 06N-09N E OF 17W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 17W-23W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA HAS SENT THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A 120 KT JET CORE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER FLORIDA JUST AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS NOTED BEHIND IT ON THE 0316 UTC ASCAT PASS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE MARKEDLY DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HIGH 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N93W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... 50 KT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DIVIDES AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N77W AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS NOTED IN THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 75W. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE MOISTURE IS THE MOST PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS STRONGEST BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DISPLACED INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A STRONG BREEZE THROUGH TUE MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AS THE FRONT PASSES N OF HISPANIOLA MON...LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN FORECAST WATERS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT WILL PHASE WITH A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MON MORNING...WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AS IT STRETCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL WATERS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR 29N25W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE JET MAX FOUND OVER EASTERN WATERS. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET MAX IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THE JET MAX WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH TUE MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER