000 AXNT20 KNHC 040540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST IS GIVING THE GULF W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 04/0300 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN HOBE SOUND N OF WEST PALM BEACH AND NAPLES CONTINUING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO MERIDA MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 23N95W. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE W GULF TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N82W AND DOMINATES ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA/HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W AND EXTENDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS S OF 21N W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY SUN. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MON INTO TUE MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY MON INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE MON ALONG 22N BUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MON THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N71W ALONG 29N77W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR HOBE SOUND N OF WEST PALM BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM 32N66W ALONG 26N77W THEN S TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W WITH SKIES CLEARING W OF LINE FROM 32N79W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N48W. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN THERE ARE NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN AND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE MON ALONG 22N AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 28N MON INTO TUE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW