000 AXNT20 KNHC 032350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 25N95W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT E WITH FAIR WEATHER WHILE THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY EXITS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... 5-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA...THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 86W-90W TO INCLUDE BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 80W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN... DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N31W TO 24N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT OFF FLORIDA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N E OF 35W IS SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT THE NW ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA