000
AXNT20 KNHC 031733
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N15W 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 
2N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N 
BETWEEN 29W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION 
OF THE GULF. OTHERWISE SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE 
GULF. A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N96W TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE AS OF 15Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE WEAK FRONT 
WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE TODAY THEN SHIFT E 
ALONG 27N ON SUN AND S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
16N79W...WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL. TRADE 
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL 
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUN. 

 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AND CONDITIONS WILL 
REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UNUSUAL LATE SEASON COLD 
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND MON MORNING...WITH 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AS OF 15Z A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO N FLORIDA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM 
32N74W TO 27N80W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-75W WITH A 1027 MB HIGH 
NEAR 32N47W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N31W TO 24N34W. A 95-
110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 18N40W THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 
23N16W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA 
ON SUN THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON MON. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS