000 AXNT20 KNHC 031034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N15W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W 3N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 15W-25W AND FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS COVERING THE FAR NW GULF. AT THE SURFACE IS A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 03/0900 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND TAMPA BAY TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N86W WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 23N W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT E ALONG 27N ON SUN AND PASS S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA/HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-81W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MONRING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN TONIGHT AND SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME MON. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN NIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MON GENERATING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N77W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM 32N74W TO 24N80W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W- 75W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N48W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION FROM A WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 31N31W AND EXTENDS TO 24N34W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N40W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON SUN THEN FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN NIGHT WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N59W TO HISPANIOLA ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW