000 AXNT20 KNHC 030545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W 3N24W 1N32W TO 1N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 17W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA BETWEEN 9W-11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO E TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 03/0300 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 25N86W WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S AND E OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF FROM JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 27N84W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE E GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT E AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND ARE MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 78W-82W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME MON. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED CLOUDS OVER NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND N HAITI. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND SUN NIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND MON GENERATING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N76W ALONG 28N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W- 75W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N48W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N33W TO 21N39W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR 31N75W TO PALM BEACH SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATING FROM 32N56W TO HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW