000 AXNT20 KNHC 030004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EST FRI MAY 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 3N20W 3N30W...TO 1N44W TO 2N51W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THROUGH EAST TEXAS...INTO MEXICO ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N81W IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...INTO MEXICO ALONG 92W TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 17N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 29N79W TO 27N80W...AND 27N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE EAST OF 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KATP...KMDJ...AND KDLP. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA... THROUGH NICARAGUA...TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N42W TO 18N50W...TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 16N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AND 86W IN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W 7N80W 10N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA... THROUGH NICARAGUA...TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA...AND STILL TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE AND PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN 72 HOURS. CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA..RELATED TO A NICARAGUA/HONDURAS- TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N42W 18N50W...TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 16N69W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 26N33W 21N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 28N29W 23N44W 19N40W 15N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N51W...THROUGH 30N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE 32N30W 21N39W COLD FRONT AND THE 32N76W 28N81W COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT