000 AXNT20 KNHC 021710 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N13W TO 02N20W TO 02N33W TO 01N43W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N100W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 86W- 88W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 80W WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N52W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 24N36W TO 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT OFF FLORIDA...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N E OF 50W IS SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA