000 AXNT20 KNHC 021033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 02N27W TO 01N40W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 12W-21W AND FROM 01S-05N W OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COVERS THE GULF WATERS. DUE TO MINIMUM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF CONTINUES BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N80W SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO ST PETERSBURG TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N86W INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W TO 17N90W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 92W WITH TSTMS NOTED FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-92W. THE GULF MARINE CONDITIONS ARE DIVIDED BY THE FRONT WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE EAST OF THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER PORTION STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WHOLE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE BASIN BY SUN MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN AND SW GULF THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE BASIN W OF 68W WHILE AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW TO COVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE THAT EXTEND TO W OF 85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 14N W OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RELAXED THUS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-78W. THE FRONT OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW BASIN BY SUN MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ISLAND THUS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORING FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL ISLAND. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS. ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE SW N ATLC...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 77W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N80W SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PART OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 41N34W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO 29N33W WHERE IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALONG 24N38W TO 20N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 31W-34W. OTHERWISE...UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN ATLC THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR