000 AXNT20 KNHC 020000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N21W TO 03N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W AND 36W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE IN THE 70-90 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE FLOW WAS ADVECTING COPIUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER THE BASIN. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 25N89W...WHICH BECAME STATIONARY AND EXTENDED TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TEXAS WAS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 240 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WAS MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE N OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH BROAD TROUGHING E OF 75W. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 18N62W TO 14N75W. AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED JUST S OF PUERTO RICO. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. A SOUTHWESTERLY TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N68W TO 14N58W. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 63W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 32N70W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W TO 23N50W TO 18N62W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXTENDED THROUGH 32N35W TO 21N46W...WHICH WEAKENED THROUGH 20N55W TO 19N55W. THE FRONT DEGENERATED INTO A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING TO 20N69W. A TWO DEGREE WIDE BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MARKED THE COLD FRONT. THE JET MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION CONTINUES THROUGH 14N60W TO 17N50W TO 20N40W AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS W OF 45W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N15W...MOVING NE ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB