000 AXNT20 KNHC 011726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 01N30W TO 01S36W TO 01N45W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 05.5N12.5W AND WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 0.5N49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. STRONGEST WINDS ARE TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NW MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N89W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N94W AND THEN TURNS NW INTO EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 240 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE GULF S OF 25N W OF ABOUT 90W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 18N65W TO 14N78W. A WESTERLY TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N70W TO 14N65W TO 14N60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED N OF THE JET E OF 72W. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 65W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 32N68W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N52W TO 18N65W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N37W TO 25N40W TO 20N55W. A TWO DEGREE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARKS THE COLD FRONT. THE JET MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION CONTINUES THROUGH 14N60W TO 17N50W TO 20N40W AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 80 KNOTS W OF 45W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N15W...MOVING NE ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB