000
AXNT20 KNHC 011028
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT THU MAY 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
05N18W 02N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 02N26W TO 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS 
ARE FROM 04N-08N E OF 16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-02N W 
OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 
23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A VERY BROAD AND VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SUPPORTS FOUR LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERS...ONE OVER WISCONSIN...THE SECOND OVER MICHIGAN AND TWO 
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC. FOLLOWING AN OCCLUSION OVER THE UPPER AND 
LOWER GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM OHIO SW TO NE 
GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 26N88W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT SW TO A 1009 MB LOW IN THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W TO 18N93W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF S OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-94W AND N OF 
26N BETWEEN 83W-90W. THE GULF MARINE CONDITIONS ARE DIVIDED BY 
THE FRONT WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WEST OF THE 
BOUNDARY AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT EAST OF THE 
FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THU 
MORNING EXTENDING FROM N OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL EXIT THE 
BASIN ON SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                         
NORTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS E OF 80W. THIS IS 
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
CONTINUES IN PLACE DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC 
REGION...THUS SUPPORTING TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-78W...OVER THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS IN NW BASIN S OF 20N W OF 83W. 
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE 
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND BUT EXTENDING TO 
THE NW BASIN S OF 19N W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BASIN SATURDAY 
NIGHT GENERATING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                              
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP 
LAYER DRY AIR. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                         
RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED 
NEAR 41N62W SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 
30N39W SOUTHWEST TO 23N47W TO 21N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-41W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF 
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N18W. 
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SW THROUGH 28N25W.
                       
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR