000 AXNT20 KNHC 010600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE S OF 21N WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N86W TO 24N90W 18N96W. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N20W 01N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N26W TO 01S38W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 05N-07N E OF 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-03N W OF 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-05N BETWEEN 11W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY BROAD AND VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT SUPPORTS FOUR LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE SECOND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A THIRD LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE FOURTH OVER MARYLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NW GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N86W SW TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 17N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-94W AND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-97W. THE GULF MARINE CONDITIONS ARE DIVIDED BY THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. WEST OF THE FRONT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 21N WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CREEP EASTWARD THU MORNING EXTENDING FROM N OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN THROUGH FRI EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS E OF 80W. THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN PLACE DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THUS SUPPORTING TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-78W...OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS IN NW BASIN S OF 20N W OF 83W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTENDS TO THE NW BASIN S OF 20N W OF 84W. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED S OF NOVA SCOTIA EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N41W SOUTHWEST TO 24N49W TO 22N57W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N42W TO 22N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 38W-43W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N20W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SW THROUGH 19N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR