000 AXNT20 KNHC 301048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N17W 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF THE EQUATOR E OF 16W AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 19W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AND VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED THOUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE SUPPORT A 1007 MB OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 33N87W. FROM THIS LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ALABAMA TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W SW TO 27N92W 24N95W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE N-NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 91W. A SQUALL LINE IS BEING ANALYZED BETWEEN THIS BURST OF CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 29N88W TO 27N91W. A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 25N92W TO 18N93W IN THE GULF OF CAMPECHE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 21N E OF 93W WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 21N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IN THE TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT TRANSITIONS AGAIN TO A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR SKIES. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE DUE TO A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 67W-80W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 84W. A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT WINDS OF 15 KT. FORMER HEAVY CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 84W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 09N AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER REIGNS ACROSS THE ISLAND. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVERALL RIDGING ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF 27N W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 997 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N43W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N46W EXTENDING SW TO 28N55W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N42W TO 24N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N24W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE 1022 MB HIGH SW TO 20N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR