000
AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
04N17W 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 02N24W TO 01N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
01S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF THE 
EQUATOR E OF 10W AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 15W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A BROAD AND VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW 
CENTERED OVER SW WISCONSIN. THIS LOW EXTENDS AN OCCLUDED FRONT 
TO CENTRAL EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL 
MISSISSIPPI...TO OFF THE COAST OF SW LOUISIANA TO 27N95W TO NE 
MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. CURRENTLY THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
NW GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY VOID OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS 
CONVECTION OCCURRING INLAND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDS 
TO NE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT FROM 25N93W SW TO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. 
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 21N W OF 91W. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS IN THE 
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IN THE 
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL 
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO MEXICO NEAR 19N95W WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA 
BIG BEND REGION SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING 
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR 
SKIES. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE DUE TO A RIDGE 
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 
20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 66W-79W AND OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 83W. A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT WINDS OF 10-15 KT. IN TERMS 
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WHICH EXTENDS OFFSHORE S OF 19N 
W OF 86W. OVER THE SW BASIN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF 13N BETWEEN 71W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO 
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 
10N.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW CLOUDS REIGNS 
ACROSS THE ISLAND. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
WILL PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                         
OVERALL RIDGING ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE 
SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N68W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMNANTS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SQUALL LINE 
AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA ARE N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 44N46W WHICH REFLECTS AT THE 
SURFACE AS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 40 N45W THAT CONTINUES TO 
DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N48W EXTENDING SW TO 25N61W. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N50W TO 29N62W WHILE 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO 25N50W. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 35N26W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE 1023 MB 
HIGH SW TO 24N39W.
                       
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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NR