000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N22W TO 01N30W 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N E OF 29W AND FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 26W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE MODERATE MOIST CONTENT IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE NW BASIN...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND S-SE WIND FLOW SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...S-SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE NW BASIN AS A COLD FRONT ON TUE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N-NE WEST OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO THU NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE FAIR WEATHER IS BEING FAVORED. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 10-15 KT. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...DRY STABLE AIR AT THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N60W SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N59W SW TO 29N67W AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N55W TO 26N63W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AT THIS TIME. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-53W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N19W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR