000 AXNT20 KNHC 281731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W TO 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS W MISSOURI TO E TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW GULF FROM 29N93W TO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO BE AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N BETWEEN 84W-91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW E OF 90W. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE AS IT RETREATS N TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON TUE REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 79W-86W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES OF REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP E/W ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WILL DIG S OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC LATE TUE AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL AGAIN GIVE HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N72W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N42W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 25N51W TO 23N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N70W TO BEYOND 32N73W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 27N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW