000 AXNT20 KNHC 280603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N18W TO 02N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO 01S35W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01S-09N BETWEEN 10W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-05N BETWEEN 22W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05S-01N W OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N E OF 88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 93W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO INCLUDE THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN LATE TUE MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE S- SE WIND FLOW OVER THE NW GULF TO 20-25 KT. RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N-NE WEST OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIGGER ANTILLES AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ITS COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 10- 15 KT. ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 11N W OF 80W...ACTIVITY LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE ISLAND HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHALLOW CLOUDS EXTENDING TO SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N61W SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N60W SW TO 28N66W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N40W SW TO 25N48W TO 22N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 37N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR