000 AXNT20 KNHC 272353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N17W TO 04N25W TO 02N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 07W- 21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING W OF 88W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW REMAINS QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NEBRASKA...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N-NE WEST OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. OTHERWISE THIS EVENING...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 87W-93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING ARE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SW CARIBBEAN. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CUBA AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 70W- 85W...INCLUDING NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 09N/10N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-74W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A RESULT OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AXIS ALONG 80W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT LIES W OF 65W. MOST OF THIS STABILITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N76W THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTHEAST HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 41N62W THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N61W SW TO 28N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 29N64W TO 25N68W. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 26N66W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 34N45W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N38W SW TO 22N54W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH WESTWARD ALONG 22N TO 67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 42W-48W...AND WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 60W-64W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 37N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN