000 AXNT20 KNHC 271737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N22W TO 1N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM INLAND OVER SW AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-12W...FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 12W-18W...AND FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 20W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THIS STRONG UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE E GULF TO OVER GEORGIA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF N OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-91W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES COVERING THE AREA E OF 85W. THE STRONG COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON MON DRIFTING W MON NIGHT THEN MOVE E AGAIN OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W OVER E PANAMA TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N81W CONTINUING W OVER COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA AND INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TODAY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND SHOWERS THROUGH MON EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W ALONG 26N45W TO 23N51W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N57W TO 21N61W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N66W TO 29N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ALONG 31N TONIGHT AND MOVE N OF AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW